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Chasing History: The long legacy of high school cross country

Published by
Guest   Oct 20th 2013, 10:12pm
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CHASING HISTORY
The long legacy of high school cross country

It wasn’t that long ago that cross country teams across America waited by the mail for the arrival of Marc Bloom’s Harrier Magazine ranking updates. Each year questionnaires would go out to his thousands of coaches and contacts that he had developed over the decades he passionately covered the sport. He would organize them and produce in-depth pamphlets that over time became the standard of performance. I personally have wondered what compels a single person to try and persist in the unthinkable task of bringing national notoriety to a previously marginalized sport. We may never know what really inspired Marc Bloom but I am sure even he never foresaw the outcome of the Nike Cross National Championship from his effort.

Along the way to this extraordinary sporting event there were teams from states who were left out, marginalized by the unfairness of state association rules or by selection committees. To the casual observer it was not a “big deal” but to those who knew history, that long line of greatness that led to the event, it could not go unaddressed.  

We at xcnation went to work, digging through microfilms, newspapers, calling coaches and athletes off state championship teams across America going back 30 years, and even reached out to the trackandfieldnews archives. We did this for the sport and along the way compartmentalized every known component of each championship team and formulated an evolving formula to determine how a team’s performance related to their current year competitors as well as history. 

In 2012 Michigan had some teams that were undoubtedly top 25 and with two teams who competed at the national championship level. They deserved to be measured and recognized. To the athletes on the marginalized teams having their hard work recognized matters.

Rankings are important only in as much as they recognize teams that otherwise would not receive notoriety for their effort. The two dozen teams who compete at NXN are not always the best two dozen in America, despite the “close to target” effort of NXN. Out of the need for fairness final rankings should not be decided by a single event but instead a comprehensive analysis of all performers, whether their season ended at the State Championship, Foot Locker, or NXN.  

We have been asked continually what it is we look at in our analysis of teams. While formula and weighting specifics won’t be shared the areas of focus are as follows: 
  1. Head to Head and Strength of Schedule performance Formulas
  2. Historical Comparison Formulas
  3. 3 miles and 5000 meter team average Formulas
  4. Teams faced and points scored ratio Formulas
  5. 1st and 2nd place team runner performances (places and times) Formulas
  6. Team Spreads Formulas:
    1. 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5
    2. 2-3, 2-4, 2-5
    3. 3-4, 3-5
    4. 4-5
Most people never know how close they are to the top 25 because that is all that we release to show the prestige of even being listed in such a group despite the thousands of high schools in America. The formula weighs current year teams and historical teams equally with no bias involved. We enter a team and metrics into the database and it computes a final score. Keeping away from bias is incredibly important and leaves us at times at odds with a few self-professed ranking experts, each ready to combat us with their list of “favorites”.

Let there be no misunderstanding, NXN is king and they rule the kingdom, however they do not govern the history and there is a fairness and honesty to be found in a third party reviewer.

Each year we perform rankings in relation to that current year’s competition. After the season internally we review those against history just so we can see the historical nature of certain teams. However, this year we were surprised on the boys side by 3 teams who when compared against this year’s competitors all scored a perfect 1.000 score. Meaning, that on any given Saturday one of them would win in relation to the measured pool of competing teams. Therefore, we made the decision to adjust the rankings against history in order to expand the metrics and display the margins between each of them.   

In regards to history, the top boys’ team of all time is 1977 Deerfield High School out of Deerfield, Illinois. Comprehensive coverage on their amazing back-to-back national championships can be found at xcnation.com. On the girl’s side, the 2009 Fayetteville Manlius squad was so dominant that they skew the rankings and perhaps no team will ever compare.  
 
Listed are the top 10 teams (end of season) from 1970 to present:
Boys:
 
  1.
0.9965 
1977 Deerfield HS, IL - Head Coach Len Kisellus
  2.
0.9655
1999 York HS, IL - Head Coach Joe Newton
  3.
0.9627
1974 South Eugene HS, OR - Head Coach Harry Johnson
  4.
0.9444
2010 Arcadia HS, CA - Head Coach Jim O'Brien
  5.
0.9330
1980 Bloomington North HS, IN - Head Coach Charles Warthan
  6.
0.9294
1976 Deerfield HS, IL - Head Coach Len Kisellus
  7.
0.9266
1980 Kent Roosevelt HS, OH - Head Coach Chuck Lucas
  8.
0.9212
1981 Carmel HS, IN - Head Coach Chuck Koeppen
  9.
0.9055
1975 South Eugene HS, OR - Head Coach Harry Johnson
10.
0.9047
1993 Mead HS, WA - Head Coach Pat Tyson
 
Listed are the top 10 teams (end of season) from 1978 to present:
Girls:
         
  1.
0.9605
 2009 Fayetteville Manlius HS, NY - Head Coach Bill Aris
  2.
0.8711
 1987 Carmel HS, IN - Head Coach Chuck Koeppen
  3.
0.8278
 2004 Saratoga Springs HS, NY - Head Coach Linda Kranick
  4.
0.8264
 2000 Rockford HS, MI - Head Coach Brad Prins
  5.
0.8152
 2011 Fayetteville Manlius HS, NY - Head Coach Bill ArisKranick
  6.
0.7801
 1999 Bingham HS, UT - Head Coach Jeff Arbogast
  7.
0.7799
 2012 Ernest W. Seaholm HS, MI - Head Coach Jeff Devantier
  8.
0.7733
 2012 Fayetteville Manlius HS, NY - Head Coach Bill Aris
  9.
0.7591
 2008 Fayetteville Manlius HS, NY - Head Coach Bill Aris
10.
0.7423
 2010 Fayetteville Manlius HS, NY - Head Coach Bill Aris
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